The 10-Year Expiration Horizon

Projections derived from expired_date on all active licenses. Recomputed on every weekly ingestion run.

The Part 95 Ten-Year Renewal Cliff

Under the FCC’s 2017 Part 95 Report and Order, GMRS license terms expanded from 5 years to 10 years. Because licenses granted under the 10-year term began on September 29, 2017, the modern service experiences a complete “renewal void” with near-zero expirations until **2027-Q4**, when the first 10-year cohort finally matures.

This page tracks future scheduled expirations for currently active licenses across the 2027–2036 decade. These are projections from current licence records, not a forecast of how many will renew — see Methodology.

First Renewal Cohort projected
2,721
2027-Q4 First calendar quarter with 100 or more expirations
10-Year Projected Expirations projected
468,145
Total active licenses scheduled to mature 2027–2036

Quarterly Renewal Schedule (2027–2030)

The initial wave of 10-year expirations as the first cohort matures.

Quarter Scheduled Expirations Cohort Phase
2027-Q3 88 Pre-reform residue
2027-Q4 2,721 Initial Wave Begins
2028-Q1 3,157 Early 10-year cohort
2028-Q2 3,458 Early 10-year cohort
2028-Q3 3,644 Early 10-year cohort
2028-Q4 3,167 Early 10-year cohort
2029-Q1 3,538 Mid-decade 10-year cohort
2029-Q2 3,867 Mid-decade 10-year cohort
2029-Q3 4,752 Mid-decade 10-year cohort
2029-Q4 3,898 Mid-decade 10-year cohort
2030-Q1 6,612 Accelerating renewal volume
2030-Q2 8,359 Accelerating renewal volume
2030-Q3 9,215 Accelerating renewal volume
2030-Q4 9,538 Accelerating renewal volume

Annual Expirations Projection (2027–2036)

Ten-year projected expiration volume based on active licenses.

Year Scheduled Expirations
2027 2,809
2028 13,426
2029 16,055
2030 33,724
2031 48,382
2032 64,581
2033 63,828
2034 99,851
2035 63,504
2036 61,985